Nabila Tasnim Era

The 2025–26 budget of Bangladesh, presented by the interim government under economic adviser Dr. ABM Salehuddin Ahmed, is a complex document. At first glance, it promises reforms and protection for the poor. But beneath the surface, it is a careful balancing act — between financial realities, social responsibilities, and political neutrality. It’s not a bold or visionary plan, but rather a cautious reassessment that reflects both today’s hardships and hopes for a better future.

The budget size is Tk 7.9 trillion — limited in scale, but ambitious in scope. Gone are the days of big announcements about massive megaprojects. Instead, the interim government has focused on economic stability, reducing inequality, and rebuilding public trust. The slogan “People, not projects” signals this shift in approach — a recognition that decades of economic growth haven't reached the poor effectively.

One of the most notable features of the budget is the increased allocation for social safety nets — over Tk 1.17 trillion. This includes higher allowances for the elderly, widows, and people with disabilities, as well as subsidized food support for 5.5 million families. These efforts directly address the pain caused by high inflation and stagnant real wages. With inflation still around 9–10%, such support isn’t just helpful — it’s necessary.

But financial challenges remain. To fund these initiatives, the government has cut the Annual Development Programme (ADP) by over Tk 350 billion and reduced subsidies. Yet, spending on education and healthcare is still far below global standards. This means long-term investment in human capital — which is key for future growth — continues to be delayed.

Tax reform is another key area. The budget promises to restructure the National Board of Revenue and modernize tax administration to improve compliance and expand the tax base. But skeptics argue that without proper accountability, such reforms could simply increase central control. With the tax-to-GDP ratio still below 10%, making real progress will require not just administrative changes, but political will and public trust.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s dependence on external support is growing. The release of $1.3 billion from the IMF, along with help from the World Bank and Japan, is critical for stabilizing foreign reserves and the currency. But these come with conditions — including reforms in financial management, exchange rate policy, and transparency — which the government must now implement under close international scrutiny.

Ultimately, this budget reflects where Bangladesh stands in mid-2025: in transition, under pressure, but not without hope. It acknowledges the country’s economic pain, attempts to fulfill promises of inclusive development, and quietly lays the groundwork for structural improvements.

The real question isn’t whether this budget can fix everything overnight — it won’t. The real test lies in what comes next: Can the state improve service delivery, implement reforms, and rebuild trust in public institutions? If so, then this budget might be remembered not for its numbers, but for quietly marking a turning point toward a fairer and more resilient future.

The writer is a student , Department of Public Administration, Comilla University.