Md. Abdullah-Al-Mamun

Many political scientists around the world opine that China may surpass the United States as the world's dominant superpower in the foreseeable future. To support their argument, they, some of them, proudly mention China’s the current economic flows and its reserve. Even some theorists use “Long Cycle Theory” and “Hegemonic Stability Theory” in supporting their argument. Yes, it is absolutely true that, over the recent few decades, China has remarkably ascended on the global stage. This country, virtually, has been successful, as of today, in transforming from a relatively modest economy into an industrial and technological powerhouse. The question arises from my side: is economic power the “only” factor which will help China rule the world? The answer is: a BIG NO. What I think is: Money cannot buy “everything”. There are numerous factors such as the continued influence of the USA dollar, global alliances, international organizations, geographic advantages, and systemic political challenges prevent China from becoming the unipolar force that the USA has been since the end of the Cold War. In the following paragraphs, these factors will be discussed meticulously.

First of all, China still operate its international trade in USD, which is one of the most significant barriers to China’s global dominance. China, despite its economic clout, could not displace the dollar with the RMB (Chinese currency) and cannot do it overnight in the recent decades. Meanwhile, the “petrodollar” system, in which oil and other commodities are traded in dollars, keeps the USA dollar indispensable for global trade. Simultaneously, we should keep in mind about the financial institutions like the WTO, IMF, and the World Bank. These international financial institutions, under the USA’s umbrella, have been playing a key role is stabilizing the global economy. China’s alternative financial initiatives, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), New Development Bank under the BRICS, and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), have yet to challenge the USA-centric financial order. Therefore, billions of miles are ahead for China to be a world’s leader in the nearest future.

Second of all, in terms of military alliance and security alliance, the USA possesses (from the WWⅠⅠ to as of today) an extensive and influential network of global alliances that enhance its ability to project power and maintain its unipolar status. Some examples might help discern the actual power of the USA are: NATO (The North Atlantic Treaty Organization), established in 1948 and dismantled the Soviet Union and its alliance the Warsaw Pact, the QUAD (with India, Japan, and Australia), AUKUS (Australia, UK, U.S. Security Pact), ANZUS (Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty), USA-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty, and Five Eyes Alliance (intelligence-sharing network includes the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), and USA-Israel Strategic Partnership. These alliances ensure military cooperation. Even these partnerships have cemented the USA's role as a security guarantor in key regions like Europe, the Indo-Pacific, and the South China Sea. The vast majority of the above-mentioned alliances have been formed with the aim of deterring China’s ambitions to dominate its neighbors and the world.

Having said that, China’s aggressive posture, particularly in the South China Sea and along the Indian border (Sino-Indian border conflicts), has prompted neighboring countries to strengthen ties with the USA for security guarantees. The USA has also forged deep relations with the European Union (EU). Which means, it is outright ensuring that even traditional USA allies remain aligned with its global agenda rather than pivoting toward China.

Additionally, organizations like the United Nations (UN) and its various arms are heavily influenced by USA diplomacy (Headquarters is in the USA, the vast amount of UN annual budget comes from US government, around 33%), ensuring that the rules-based international order remains largely shaped by USA-driven principles. While China is a permanent member, along with the USA, the UK, France, and Russia, of the UN Security Council, it has struggled to assert itself within these institutions without facing pushback from USA-aligned countries like the UK and France. Thus, China’s dream of leading the world order will remain far away.

Let us talk about another overarching element that underpins USA dominance is its leadership in innovation and technological advancements. According to Statistics and the World ranking, the USA is home to the world’s top universities (Harvard, Princeton, Stanford, MIT, Yale, Chicago, University of California and so on) research institutions, and tech companies (Google, Meta, Microsoft, SpaceX), which continue to push the boundaries in fields like artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, biotechnology, and space exploration. Can we avoid the significance of some other “GREAT” institutions such as NASA? It represents the USA's cutting-edge capabilities in space exploration. China’s advancements in this domain, though impressive, are still several steps behind.

From the perspective of geopolitical and geography, the USA enjoys some increasingly great and unbreakable merits over China. The USA is flanked by two vast oceans—the Atlantic and the Pacific. Which means, the USA gets natural defenses that buffer against direct threats. Moreover, the USA shares borders with two friendly countries such as Canada and Mexico. This position offers continental stability and security. Therefore, it allows the USA to project power across the globe without facing significant threats at home and from neighboring countries. Meanwhile, China is geographically surrounded by countries— India, Japan, Vietnam, and the Philippines and others— with which it has complex and sometimes antagonistic relations. Besides political crisis with Taiwan and Hong Kong, China's unresolved border conflicts, such as those in the Himalayas with India and in the South China Sea with several Southeast Asian nations, limit its ability to focus on projecting global influence. Instead, it must allocate resources—military intelligence to financial establishment— to managing these regional tensions, which hinder its global ambitions.

At the same time, may be, scholars and political scientists who see China’s dominance in the nearest future hardly care about China’s authoritarian political system. Who will gainsay the fact that China’s political landscape under the leadership of the Communist Party and President Xi Jinping is inundated with an array of challenges? It is true that China’s centralized political structure allows it to implement rapid reforms and maintain social order. But one should bear in mind that this style stifles dissent, creativity, and political flexibility. Let us have a look at Samuel Huntington’s political theory: he opines that China’s centralized political system may be at odds with the democratic values that have defined the global order, thus limiting China’s soft power. The USA, on the other hand, benefits from its robust democratic institutions and democratic voting systems, though there are some avoidable questions. History suggests, democratic institutions allow for political adaptability, creativity, and innovation. Political pluralism and freedom of speech (UDHR 1948), freedom of movement foster debate and dissent. These are of utmost importance for progress and reform. As of today, although China has been successful in controlling its population and ensuring stability through authoritarian measures, the risk of political unrest remains. The lack of transparency and political freedom may ultimately backfire down the line. It may be a cause of internal instability in the foreseeable future while the maximum countries around the world have been relishing the beauty of democratic systems and liberalism for decades.

To conclude, China’s rise is undeniable. The future global order is more likely to be multipolar rather than unipolar while some countries like India, Japan are rising. Universal truth it is that the USA remains at the center of a complex web of alliances and international institutions that bind the world’s major powers into a USA-centric system. From NATO to the QUAD, AUKUS, and the EU, the USA has cultivated partnerships that promote security, economic and political alignment. The theories of geopolitics, such as Realism, underscore the importance of balancing power in international relations. While China is a rising power, it will continue to be counterbalanced by the USA and its allies. Some Asian countries like India (1.3+ billion mouths and stomachs) and Japan are strengthening ties with the USA (QUAD is a prime example) with the aim of impeding China’s growing influence. The two mega initiatives like The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and BRICS are facing significant pushback. Therefore, China’s challenges—demographic, economic, geopolitical, and political—suggest that while it will continue to be a major global player, it will not supplant the USA as the unipolar leader of the world. The future global order will likely be multipolar, with the USA remaining at the center of global politics, economics, and security.

The writer is a, Feature Articles Writer He writes to national and International News Platforms