Md. Abdullah-Al-Mamun

China’s rise (despite having some internal and external political issues) on the global stage now presents a real challenge to USA hegemony. Chinese economic prowess (GDP growth has averaged over 9 percent a year, and almost 800 million people have lifted themselves out of poverty), geopolitical initiatives (Belt and Road Initiative), and military advancements increasingly assert its influence across the globe.

As a “powerhouse of manufacturing" or "the factory of the world, China has been experiencing an unprecedented growth since 2000s. This growth significantly impacted global income distribution and its own people’s socio-economic condition. Eventually, this uprising has positioned it as a formidable contender to USA economic dominance.

To encircle the whole world under China’s radius, China has taken two major initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025. Through these two initiatives and soft power, China, slowly but smartly, is expanding its reach into regions once firmly within the USA sphere of influence. With the aim of facilitating trade among countreis and laying the foundation and groundwork for china’s broader ambitions to reshape global economic governance, the BRI has been designed meticulously.

These two initiatives along with other steps people -to-people and “not to interfere in any country’s internal affairs” can effectively diminish USA influence, especially in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Alongside these economic maneuvers, China’s military has grown in both size and capability and even military budget is being augmented every year. Which means, China is transforming itself into the largest standing army in terms of personnel and making significant strides in modernizing its naval and air forces.

These developments, economic and smart power, present a clear threat to USA military dominance, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. China's maritime presence has grown exponentially in the recent years. What theories say is: historically, hegemonic shifts (cycle of global power), as suggested by Long Cycle Theory, occur approximately every 100-120 years, driven by fluctuations in economic and military power. In this regard, China’s ascent fits within this larger narrative of global leadership transitions.

The Hegemonic Stability Theory, on the other hand, posits that the global system is most stable when a single, dominant power provides public goods, such as security and economic stability. For decades, the USA has served as the global hegemon, maintaining international order through its military superiority and economic influence, yet China's growing military expenditures and its increasing influence in international institutions challenge the very stability the USA has sought to preserve. What is particularly concerning for the USA is China’s ability to integrate its economic expansion with its strategic military goals, a blend that is reshaping global power dynamics in ways not seen since the Cold War (between USSR and its alliance Warsaw Pact and The USA and its alliance NATO.

The decline of USA hegemony and the simultaneous rise of China is not just a matter of shifting economic dominance but a broader recalibration of global governance. In this context, China is increasingly viewed by many countries as a more reliable partner, particularly in regions where USA involvement has either waned or been viewed as inconsistent. This shift has been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this critical times, China showcased its capacity for crisis management in stark contrast to the perceived mishandling of the crisis by the USA government. Plus, China's investment in global infrastructure through the BRI has provided developing nations with much-needed capital.

This policy, though questionable in some cases, is allowing Beijing to exert soft power in ways that are reshaping global alliances, particularly in Africa and Southeast Asia, where the USA has traditionally held significant influence. Yet, despite these gains, there are still considerable challenges to China’s global ascent, particularly as its authoritarian model and human rights violations against the Muslim minority and political crisis with Taiwan and Hong Kong face growing scrutiny from democratic countries. However, as political scientist Robert Gilpin noted in his analysis of hegemonic stability, the ability of a hegemon to maintain its status is closely tied to its capacity to project both military strength and economic stability.

China here in this realm continues to make significant strides. The USA, meanwhile, faces internal challenges, such as political polarization and economic inequality that have eroded its ability to lead globally with the same confidence it once commanded. While the Biden administration (the current government of the USA) has sought to reassert USA leadership, particularly through strengthening alliances with NATO and engaging in strategic dialogues with countries like India, these efforts have been met with mixed success, particularly as China's economic influence continues to grow unabated. What remains clear is that the future of global leadership is no longer a foregone conclusion, as China’s rise signals a more multipolar world. It means USA dominance is no longer guaranteed. It is being predicted that the rules of global governance may soon be rewritten to reflect new realities. As both Long Cycle Theory and Hegemonic Stability Theory suggest, these transitions in global leadership are often accompanied by instability, and the current USA-China rivalry could very well set the stage for a new era of competition. It will happen not just for economic and military dominance, but for the very future of the global order itself.

The writer is a, Research Assistant Department of International Relations Jahangirnagar University