Staff Correspondent

A groundbreaking computer model named EPINEST has been introduced by a UK-led international team of One Health researchers, offering a pioneering framework for monitoring viruses and bacteria as they traverse livestock systems "from farm to fork."

EPINEST, short for EPIdemic Network Simulation in poultry Transportation systems, marks the first modeling tool designed to track infectious disease threats associated with global food systems comprehensively. Developed and tested by the GCRF One Health Poultry Hub, EPINEST enables decision-makers to gain deeper insights into infectious disease risks and deploy targeted interventions effectively.

A press release issued by One Health Poultry Hub, an impact-driven research project working in Bangladesh, confirmed the matter on Wednesday.

The new model’s versatility allows it to track various pathogens, including avian influenza viruses (AIVs), bacteria causing food poisoning such as Campylobacter and Salmonella, and bacteria carrying antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes, throughout poultry production and distribution networks (PDNs), the release said.

With the intensification of livestock farming and the complexity of food systems, there's a growing concern about emerging pathogens and zoonotic disease outbreaks. EPINEST addresses these challenges by realistically simulating the movement of pathogens through diverse livestock networks, aiding in the identification of potential risks and the development of effective mitigation strategies.

EPINEST’s agent-based modeling system integrates empirical data on farm sizes, trading practices, and pathogen sequencing to create simulations representing different disease scenarios. By mapping the spread of diseases like avian influenza across farms and markets, researchers can quantify the impact of interventions and explore novel strategies to mitigate disease risk.

Francesco Pinotti, an investigator from the University of Oxford and a member of the GCRF One Health Poultry Hub, highlighted the significance of EPINEST in understanding pathogen spread and evolution within poultry systems. He emphasised its potential to support decision-making and enhance the safety and sustainability of poultry production globally, the release added.

The EPINEST model, detailed in a publication titled ‘EPINEST, an agent-based model to simulate epidemic dynamics in large-scale poultry production and distribution networks’ in PLOS Computational Biology, underscores a significant advancement in One Health research and underscores the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration in addressing global health challenges.