By Alok Acharja

The midterm elections served as an acid test—a critical trial—for U.S. President Donald
Trump. He did not fare well. In fact, the geopolitical landscape offers no good news for him.
Having operated from the outset based on flawed decisions and a "might-makes-right"
approach, the President has suffered a major setback in these elections. While his series of
controversial decisions left the world stunned, the American public did not respond
favorably. Furthermore, his own party faced internal divisions. Nearly all the candidates he
personally endorsed were defeated by Democrats—even in regions where Republicans had
previously enjoyed significant popularity. Meanwhile, in Brazil, the candidate backed by
Trump also lost, serving as an ominous sign for both Trump and his party. It is a significant
blow. The victory of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has dealt a major setback to Donald Trump’s
vision for the Western Hemisphere. The U.S. President had sought to cultivate a bloc of
nations in the south, led by figures loyal to him who would champion business-friendly
policies and authoritarian-style governance. Simultaneously, he aimed to distance himself
from allies who uphold liberal democratic values. With Lula’s victory, that strategy has
effectively collapsed. The "Monroe Doctrine"—a policy articulated by President James
Monroe in 1823, warning European powers against interfering in the affairs of the
Americas—gained renewed prominence during the U.S. conflict with Spain in the 1890s.
Compounding these setbacks is the situation in Israel—a close American ally—where
Benjamin Netanyahu failed to secure an outright victory. Instead, he will be forced to rely on
an opposition coalition to form a government. The exact structure of this arrangement will
soon become clear; it remains uncertain whether Netanyahu will remain in power or if
someone from the opposition coalition will emerge as Prime Minister—or perhaps a
compromise will be reached. The public has cast their votes in the first election held since
the onset of the aggression in Palestine. All in all, the end of the year is proving difficult for
both Donald Trump and the interests of the United States. The election results demonstrate
that the public has not responded favorably to the series of stubborn decisions made by
Trump. Let us first consider the U.S. midterm elections—elections that consistently generate
significant interest, as they reveal the standing of both the ruling and opposition parties in the
eyes of the electorate. White House now faces major political challenges regarding
legislation and policymaking for the remainder of Trump’s second term.
This victory in the most populous Republican-leaning state is being viewed as a major
political achievement for the Democratic Party. Such wins by the opposition within
traditional Republican strongholds have left the Republican Party anxious about future
elections. Midterm elections are generally regarded as an assessment of the incumbent
president’s performance during their first two years in office. That said, it is also true that a
party can recover from a poor midterm performance and regain public trust—a scenario for
which there are historical precedents. However, the unresolved conflict with Iran has worked
against Trump; the war he left hanging has effectively backfired on him. Meanwhile, voters
are dissatisfied with the handling of the war in Ukraine. Furthermore, the rising cost of
living, inflation, the Trump administration’s tariff policies, and the conflict with Iran have
become key issues in public discourse. An October survey by the Pew Research Center
indicated that only three out of every ten American citizens were satisfied with Trump’s

performance. Various analyses suggest that economic concerns and discontent with the
administration’s policies played a major role in the Democrats' electoral success.
The new Congress is set to convene on January 3 of next year. Once the 120th Congress
begins its session, the Trump administration will have to contend with both chambers being
under Democratic control. Consequently, moving forward on matters such as the budget,
legislation, administrative decisions, and the implementation of various policies may prove
difficult without reaching a consensus with the opposition. In areas like policy toward Iran,
aid to Ukraine, and broader Middle East strategy, the administration will often need to wait
for the Democrats—or seek their agreement—before finalizing any major decisions.
Meanwhile, the defeat of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil—a candidate favored by Trump—has also
dealt a blow to Trump’s interests in South America. Following this historic electoral
outcome, new political dynamics are emerging globally. At the same time, the poor
performance of Trump’s party in the midterm elections has left the party in a precarious
position. The defeat of Bolsonaro—known as a candidate backed by Trump—has further
complicated matters for Trump. Amidst concerns over the cost of living, crime, and
corruption—and a prevailing right-wing political tide across Brazil and Latin America—80-
year-old leftist leader Lula da Silva defeated Bolsonaro. With this victory, he became the
first president in Brazilian history to be elected for a fourth term. It is expected that under
Lula’s leadership, Latin America’s largest nation will maintain an independent foreign
policy—even amidst potential friction with a Trump administration—while continuing to
strengthen economic and diplomatic ties with the Global South and China.
Democrats will now exert the greatest influence on Trump’s policy decisions. Trump has
already signaled his readiness to work with the Democrats—a necessity, given that he can no
longer act as unilaterally as he did before the election. For instance, his "mega-tariff" policy
may now be subject to change. In Israel, politicians, journalists, and analysts view the
election outcome as a major setback for the nation’s security and for Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu’s international standing. Yair Lapid, former Israeli Prime Minister and
leader of the center-right "Together" alliance, wrote on the social media platform X that the
U.S. election results have effectively eliminated any possibility of forming a national unity
government with Netanyahu. He added that Israel cannot afford the risk of keeping
Netanyahu as Prime Minister, warning that it would endanger the nation’s security and
democracy, leaving it isolated on the global stage. Nevertheless, the likelihood of Netanyahu
remaining in power as Prime Minister remains high.
In the context of shifting geopolitics, both the U.S. midterm elections and Israel’s elections
have proven significant. The entire Middle East remains in a state of instability due to the
conflict involving Iran; this volatility is unlikely to subside until the fighting ceases. This war
will not end; rather, it is set to intensify as Iran launches more forceful attacks—a
development that hinges on Trump’s decisions. Across Europe, there is talk of nuclear
weapons. Citizens in several countries have been advised to stock up on food and essential
supplies for a few days. Some fear that the United States might even launch a nuclear strike
on Iran; television broadcasts have already provided instructions on what to do in the event
of such an attack. Trump faces a political crisis on one front, while on the other, the war with
Iran—which he does not have full control over—continues to loom.

Alok Acharja
Essayist and Columnist
Pabna