Alok Acharja

Although the strategy that Donald Trump has resorted to keep his promise to end the Ukraine war is not very much accepted with Kiev, Zelensky has agreed and Putin is also on the verge of agreeing at last. On the one hand, the prospect of Trump's growing closeness with Putin is going to end the competition to bring the world's two superpowers closer, on the other hand, it has created concerns about the security of the United States' long-time allies in Europe. The biggest impact is going to be on the future of NATO.

It is true that NATO will remain intact beyond Trump's decision, but the US's reluctance will definitely weaken NATO's military power. On the other hand, this is going to be good news for 71-year-old Russian President Putin, the longest-serving leader in history for more than 200 years. Because the cause of Putin's headache was the expansion of NATO. In addition, Trump's close and influential Elon Musk has also spoken about leaving NATO. The post shared by the microblogging site X reads, "Exit NATO now". Sharing it, Musk wrote, "We should get out. There is no point in funding Europe for defense like this." Elon Musk is currently known as Trump's confidant and a very important person. On March 6, Trump also discussed staying in NATO with allies. In the meeting, Trump said that he would not fund the defense of NATO allies if the bill was not paid. The alliance's 76th anniversary is going to be celebrated next month.

NATO was formed under the leadership of the United States. Everything was fine until now. However, it was assumed in some of Trump's previous statements that he could make a decision regarding NATO, such as changes in many policies. Now the point is that if the United States leaves NATO or reduces the amount of aid given by the United States to NATO, European countries will be somewhat insecure.

If another country suffers the same fate as Ukraine, the question is how strong NATO will be without the United States, even if it continues to help its member countries in the way it has been doing so far. Poland and Belgium have already started taking various steps to increase their war capabilities. The country's Prime Minister Donald Trump has already announced that every adult male in Poland will be subjected to extensive military training. On the other hand, Belgian ministers are also vocal about this. The country's government is calling on universities to prepare medical students to deal with possible crises and war situations in the future.

This idea of increasing their own capabilities, whether they are attacked or not, comes from the fate of Ukraine. If they have sufficient capabilities without the help of others, the war will end one way, and if they do not have the capabilities, then another way. Kiev is a big example of this. In addition to reserve soldiers, Poland is thinking of providing intensive training to those who have never fully joined the army and were not skilled soldiers during the war. France and Germany are also on this list of strength increases. Some are increasing the defense budget, while others are emphasizing the production of weapons to increase military capabilities.

The war in Ukraine shows that weapons are the main tool in war. The more modern the weapons, the more advantages countries will have on the battlefield. Then there are issues such as intelligence capabilities, internal security, maintaining food supplies, having medical equipment, etc. However, the most important thing is weapons or military capabilities. Countries are trying to increase or strengthen them. So that they can handle it themselves if they are attacked in the future. So far, NATO and the United States have taken care of the security issue, but now the situation is different.

NATO's policy is if NATO country is attacked, NATO will come forward to protect its allies. The advantage that Ukraine wanted to get. Although not completely, the United States has filled that space so far. According to FT news, the United States was the source of about two-thirds of the weapons imported to the European Union NATO countries in the last five years (2020-24), which indicates the alliance's deep dependence on US arms manufacturers. This information was given in a new report by the research organization Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). It shows that arms imports to the NATO region doubled between 2020-24 compared to the previous five years. This is because the region has taken additional steps for defense after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to SIPRI data, the United States was the source of 64 percent of the weapons supplied to European countries at that time, which was 52 percent in the previous five years, i.e. 2015-19.

Europe has started adopting various plans to strengthen its security system. The purpose is the same. Although the countries are most feared of Russia. This is the main reason, even if not directly. And the countries are also well aware that the United States will not stand by them as before. That is why they want to create their own security zone, meaning they want to reorganize NATO as well. Where NATO's capabilities can be increased and its war capabilities can be achieved to the fullest. Andreas Kubilius, the European Union Commissioner for Defense and Space, made the final announcement of this plan at a session in the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France. He said the global security situation has changed.

The Russian military industry is working at full capacity, Kubilius noted. There is a possibility of a conflict with NATO within the next five years. This week, the 27 member states of the European Union (EU) approved a new defense funding plan, which includes a proposal to provide governments with 150 billion euros in loans to increase military capabilities. For the first time in two decades, Europe has overtaken the Middle East as the largest arms export destination for the United States. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the issue of NATO expansion has come to the fore, and Putin's dissatisfaction with it has also come to the fore. On the one hand, NATO expansion and on the other hand, the gradual weakening of Ukraine.

NATO is certainly the most powerful military alliance in the world at the moment. Member states have been trying to expand this alliance for many years. After Finland joined, NATO seemed to be stronger than ever. But since the US attitude towards NATO is not very positive, now there are concerns about the future of NATO. The psychological distance between the Western world and Russia increases further with the expansion of NATO. Now, perhaps this psychological distance will decrease somewhat. On the one hand, the world will benefit from this. If the two superpowers can reach a consensus on various issues, it will be the history of the last few decades. The balance of superpowers in the world may change. The picture of global politics will be reversed. The most important thing is how Europe will organize NATO if the US leaves NATO or reduces its allocation to NATO.

The writer is a, Essayist and Columnist Pabna.