M A Hossain

In February 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a 'special military operation' in Ukraine, the concept of World War lll started gaining traction. Initially expected to be a swift and decisive campaign, this conflict has evolved into a protracted war with significant geopolitical ramifications. The complexity of the situation for Russia, coupled with the strong support of Western nations for Ukraine, has led to widespread speculation that the world might be entering a new era of global conflict. This notion has been further fueled by recent developments in the Middle East, South Asia and the potential for escalating tensions in East Asia, particularly concerning Taiwan.

The 'First Front' aptly describes the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, as it represents the initial stage of a potentially global confrontation. When Russia launched its military operation against Ukraine, it was widely perceived as a limited regional conflict with clear objectives—mainly, the subjugation of Ukraine and the expansion of Russian influence in Eastern Europe. However, the West's provocation to invade Ukraine, later bolstered by extensive Western military and economic support, transformed this conflict into a much larger and more complex confrontation. The West’s involvement, particularly that of NATO countries, has not only prolonged the war but also turned it into a proxy battle between Russia and the Western alliance.

On October 7, 2023, the world witnessed the opening of what some analysts are calling the 'Second Front' in the potential global conflict. Hamas, a militant organization based in Gaza, launched a devastating surprise attack on Israel. The scale and ferocity of the attack caught Israel off guard, leading to a massive military response and an ongoing invasion of Gaza. The conflict quickly escalated as Hezbollah and Houthi, the proxy forces of Iran and part of the broader 'Axis of Resistance (AoR)', began attacking Israel from the north and in Red Sea lane, forcing Israel to fight on multiple fronts.

The significance of the 'Second Front' lies in its potential to draw in regional and global powers. Iran, a key supporter of both Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi, has long been at odds with Israel and the United States. The escalating violence in Gaza, Yemen and Lebanon could easily spiral into a broader regional war involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Middle Eastern nations. Additionally, the United States’ unwavering support for Israel has the potential to drag it further into the conflict, leading to direct confrontations with Iran and its allies.

While the First and Second Fronts are currently the most visible manifestations of global tensions, the prospect of a 'Third Front' looms large in South and South-East Asia. There could be multiple campaigns by Washington’s deep-state policymakers which would destabilize these regions. The situation between China and Taiwan has been simmering for decades. In recent years, the rhetoric from Beijing has become increasingly assertive, with the Chinese leadership making it clear that they are willing to use force if necessary to bring Taiwan under their control.

The United States, for its part, has maintained a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' regarding Taiwan, providing the island with military support while stopping short of outright recognition of its independence. However, the growing military presence of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region and its efforts to strengthen alliances with countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia suggest that Washington is preparing for the possibility of a conflict with China over Taiwan.

Following the student movement in Hong Kong, Thailand, similar uprisings have occurred in Bangladesh, India, Kashmir, and Pakistan. It is evident that the American CIA model has played a role in these developments. Bangladesh is a key strategic location for the United States' Indo-Pacific agenda, which explains the rapid fall of its government and the subsequent rise of a pro-American provisional government.

The primary objective of this shift is to secure a military foothold for the United States in Bangladesh, allowing it to monitor and contain China from multiple fronts. Additionally, this move serves to curtail India's ambitions of becoming a regional power, both economically and militarily. It's evident that the Indian Navy has a strong presence in the Indian Ocean. Consequently, we may witness military campaigns in Kashmir, India, Myanmar, and Taiwan. The U.S. has long harbored plans to establish a Christian state by integrating Arakan of Myanmar, southern parts of Bangladesh, and Manipur in India. By fostering instability in South and South East Asia, America could ignite conflicts across Hong Kong, Taiwan, Myanmar, Kashmir, and India, ultimately paving the way for its Free Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor.

China has ascended to the position of the world's leading economic superpower, while India is rapidly emerging as a significant regional economic power, with a projected GDP of $10 trillion by 2030. Both China and India are home to the largest consumer markets globally. As the US-China trade war persists, India could potentially challenge the US Indo-Pacific strategy in the future. This possibility was exposed during the recent G-20 summit in India.

Moreover, India's stance amid the Russia-China alliance suggests it may not fully adhere to all US commitments. In this scenario, the superpower that secures influence over Bangladesh—a key geopolitical segment—will likely command strategic control over South and Southeast Asia. Establishing a strong foothold in Bangladesh will also enhance a superpower's ability to maintain dominance in the broader Indo-Pacific region.

The emergence of multiple conflicting fronts in different parts of the world recommends that we may already be witnessing the early stages of a global conflict, even if it does not yet resemble the total wars of the 20th century. The interconnectedness of these conflicts, coupled with the involvement of major powers like the United States, Russia, China, and regional powers in the Middle East, points to a broader challenge to the existing world order.

The economic implications of these conflicts cannot be understated. The war in Ukraine has already led to a global energy crisis, and a conflict in the Indo-Pacific would likely disrupt global trade and lead to a severe economic downturn. The potential for cyber warfare, economic sanctions, and other non-military forms of conflict further complicates the situation, making it difficult to predict how these events will unfold.

The international community must take these developments seriously and work towards de-escalation and conflict resolution. Failure to do so could result in a global catastrophe that would dwarf the horrors of the previous world wars. The world stands at a crossroads, and the decisions made in the coming years will determine whether we can avoid plunging into another devastating global conflict.

The writer is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh