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Middle east’s political situation after Raisi

Middle east’s political situation after Raisi

Alok Acharja

The death of Ibrahim Raisi in the helicopter crash is an irreparable loss to Iran. Raisi, as Iran's leader, maintained considerable influence in Iran and was the most powerful person after Khamenei. Raisi was known as a hardline leader of Iran. He has been praised in Iran for his bold actions, such as continuing his nuclear program in defiance of Western sanctions or the recent retaliatory strikes on Israeli soil.

It is said that his courageous role has led Iran's nuclear program to the point where it has become a global headache. So there is a discussion about whether his death can affect the nuclear program or not. However, the criticism did not leave him behind. Ibrahim Raisi was elected as the 13th President of Iran in 2021. It was thought that one day the supreme religious leader of the country would be the successor of Ayatollah Khamenei. After being elected president in 2021, Raisi tightened Iran's policy laws. Raisi was born in the holy city of Mashhad in Iran in 1960 and assumed high-level responsibilities at a young age. At the age of 20, he was appointed Prosecutor-General of Karaj, near Tehran. Ibrahim Raisi became president in 2017.

But then President Hassan Rouhani won the election by defeating Raisi. In 2019, he was appointed head of the judiciary by the country's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Ibrahim Raisi was elected as the 13th president of Iran in the second round of elections in 2021. He got about 62 percent of the vote. Rouhani is relatively moderate, and in 2015, during his presidency, he concluded the Iran nuclear deal with some of the world's most powerful countries.

Among the charges against Raisi is that after the bloody 10-year war between Iran and Saddam Hussein's Iraq in 1988, mock trials of political prisoners, militants, and others, known as the 'Death Commission', were held.

Thus, he became known as the 'Butcher of Tehran' for executing hundreds of political prisoners. Then it came under the ban of the United States. However, he did not change his attitude or express remorse for the murder. However, he was heavily criticized for this incident. Again, after the death of Mahsa Amini in late 2022, there were major protests in the country. The streak of that movement has been going on for a long time. He is criticized all over the world.

Although these actions are against global humanity, he was hardly criticized in Iran, but he is still popular there. Especially after the Israeli attack, there was a public response. Raisi's successor will be known after the election, as the country has already announced the date of the presidential election. According to the country's constitution, elections must be held within 50 days of the president's resignation. As a result, the country must hold elections by June 29. But it is not sure whether he can be a substitute for Raisi or not.

Because from a young age, one must be strong-minded like Raisi and continue to fight the West in words and deeds. Ibrahim Raisi's relationship with Ayatollah Khamenei must also be with his confidant. Now the question is whether Ibrahim Raisi's helicopter crash was just an accident or whether there was some kind of conspiracy behind it. Even though it was called an accident by Iran, accusations have already been directed at Israel.

However, Israel has completely denied the matter. According to the Reuters news agency, an Israeli official denied any involvement in Raisi's death on condition of anonymity. In a statement, he said, "We are not involved in this accident." The situation is such that the tension between the two countries has not completely subsided yet. Just a few days ago, there was an attack-retaliation incident.

One country threatened another country. It was under his leadership that Iran's military launched hundreds of drone and missile attacks on Israeli territory a few days ago due to regional enmity. Vows to take revenge. This is precisely why this suspicion has arisen. Although this is merely dubious talk, However, the mystery of Raisi's death is being discussed. According to a report in the influential British magazine The Economist, some Iranians suspect Israel of Raisi's death. Raisi had a role in the killing of an Iranian general in Israel in Damascus and the subsequent firing of hundreds of Iranian missiles at Israel.

The name of Israel's intelligence agency, Mossad, has emerged. However, experts have ruled out the possibility of this happening. But its future can be understood only by observing the situation over time. Because the mercury of tension between the two countries will not be lightened so easily. The global situation is quite complex now. And the Middle East equation is complicated. The conflict between Israel and Hamas continues. Further complicating the situation is Iran's proxy network across Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. The global geopolitical situation is just entering a new phase.

Iran's role in this situation is very important. In this situation, there is some confusion about the death of Ibrahim Raisi. Analysts think that the deaths of these two influential figures in geopolitics may change the political equation in the Middle East. Journalists Assoc According to a report by the Associated Press, the deaths of Raisi and Abdullahian will have a major impact on the ongoing conflict across the Middle East.

Former Assistant Secretary of State for the House, Joel Rubin, of the US government. After the death of the Iranian president, he said, conspiracy theories behind the deaths of Raisi and his associates cannot be ruled out now. In the coming days, this incident may affect not only Iranian politics but also international politics.

Ibrahim Raisi's decision was the final decision in Iran, although not entirely alone, because, being a confidant of Ayatollah Khamenei, there was often no disagreement about it, especially in matters related to Iran's interests. Almost single-handedly, he made Iran a superpower in the world. Iran's great progress has also come in the military sector of the world. Iran has indeed suffered a major blow with the untimely death of the recently deceased President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, but the Iran-Middle East equation will depend on who replaces him and to what extent he can play a role.

The writer is a Essayist and columnist Pabna

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