S. M. Saiful Islam Kabir from Sundarbans 

Climate change along the coast of the world’s largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, means more than just rising temperatures. It tells the story of displaced people, lost villages, and an uncertain future.

May, known as a cyclone-prone month, is once again signaling severe weather threats. After Cyclone Remal ravaged the coast last May, this year the fear of a powerful cyclone looms again — not one, but two cyclones may form within the same week, one in the Bay of Bengal and the other in the Arabian Sea.

On Monday morning (May 19), Mostofa Kamal Polash, a weather and climate researcher at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, posted on Facebook that a strong cyclone is highly likely to form in the Bay of Bengal. According to his forecast, the cyclone could strike between May 27 and 30 anywhere from India’s Odisha coast to Myanmar’s Rakhine State.

He also noted that another cyclone is likely to form in the Arabian Sea within the same week. The forecast suggests the Arabian Sea cyclone might form first, followed by the one in the Bay of Bengal. According to the World Meteorological Organization’s regional naming list, the first two names for the 2025 cyclone season are ‘Shakti’ and ‘Manta’. Whichever cyclone forms first, whether in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea, it will be named ‘Shakti’, and the second will be called ‘Manta’.

Mostofa Kamal Polash also stated that the strength of the Bay of Bengal cyclone may largely depend on the behavior of the Arabian Sea cyclone. If the Arabian cyclone dissipates early, the Bay of Bengal cyclone could become significantly stronger.

According to weather model analyses, the Bay of Bengal cyclone may make landfall between May 29 and 30. However, nothing is certain yet. Meteorologists are monitoring the situation closely.

It is worth noting that the trend of cyclones in May has been increasing in recent years. Catastrophic storms like Amphan, Yaas, Mocha, and Remal all struck the coast in May. This year, the same fear is intensifying again.

Climate change is now one of the most pressing global crises, affecting global security, the economy, and every layer of human life. The continuous rise in average temperatures and sea levels not only threatens the environment but also shakes the foundation of social and economic structures.

Coastlines are eroding, cyclones are intensifying, and villages are disappearing — Bangladesh is in the midst of a climate refugee crisis. Due to a lack of international recognition, millions of people remain in uncertainty.

As a result of climate change, the number of displaced people — those we refer to as “climate refugees” — is rapidly increasing worldwide. Countries across South Asia, including Bangladesh, are witnessing the harsh reality of this crisis. Riverbank erosion, rising salinity, and frequent natural disasters in coastal areas are forcing thousands to leave their homes. 

Seeking shelter, they are moving toward urban areas, creating intense pressure on cities and giving rise to new social and economic challenges. These individuals, compelled to leave their familiar environment, are essentially the "climate refugees."