M A Hossain

The upcoming US presidential election on November 5, 2024, carries significant implications for the entire world, including Bangladesh’s political landscape. With the recent ouster of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her fleeing the country thus taking refuge in India, Bangladesh stands at a political crossroads, facing unprecedented geopolitical pressures. An intriguing aspect of this shift is the waning interest of foreign lobbyists in Washington, particularly in favor of Nobel laureate Dr. Muhammad Yunus, a close ally of the Democratic Party in the United States, including the Clinton family and George Soros. However, with the personal influence of Dr. Yunus, and the absence of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami support for incumbent government, Bangladesh is facing a power vacuum in the US Capitol. As a result, the political dynamics between Bangladesh and the United States are entering an uncertain phase where international influence and internal political control are in flux.

In the midst of these geopolitical shifts, India’s role in Bangladesh's future leadership cannot be ignored. Rumors have surfaced that India may facilitate Sheikh Hasina’s political asylum in a third country, distancing her from the political limelight. However, such assumptions, which suggest that India aims to exile Hasina for better bilateral relations with Bangladesh, are misleading. In reality, India has a vested interest in keeping Hasina in a position of influence, albeit from behind the scenes.

India's strategic game revolves around ensuring Hasina remains a key player, but not necessarily within India. By removing her physically from the country, India seeks to control her role and use her as leverage to maintain influence over Bangladesh’s political apparatus. Some argue that India would prefer to have Hasina operating from abroad, making her a more malleable figure for Indian interests. Once Hasina is outside India, Hindutva lobbyists in Washington will likely increase their efforts to secure India’s influence in Bangladesh, particularly if the Democratic Party remains in power. India’s objective is not to distance itself from Hasina but to ensure that her political network remains intact, allowing India to manipulate the situation in its favor.

One more important factor, which might be missing the attention of many is – sitting in India almost in isolation, Sheikh Hasina is currently unable to mobilize her actual efforts against Dr. Yunus and his government. Once she lands in any third country, she will begin aggressively pushing her agenda against the government, thus channeling millions of dollars – as we all know, Awami League leaders, including family members of Mujib family are filthily wealthy, where they will have no problem in spending even few hundred million dollars for ousting Yunus and pave path for return to Sheikh Hasina to Bangladesh.

It is important to note, lobbying in Washington is a well-established mechanism that has become an integral part of foreign policy, particularly for smaller nations like Bangladesh. At the same time, in the US Capitol, all of those mighty figures, including Senators and members of the Congress are readily available for extending lobbyist services – openly or secretly, in favor of any foreign clients.

While it is well-known that Dr. Muhammad Yunus, has strong connections with the Democratic Party, if the Democrats maintain control of the White House following the November 5 election, and once Barack Obama’s prodigy Kamala Harris wins, Yunus’s influence could further expand, leading to a major shift in US-Bangladesh relations. In this case, Washington may advance its military interest with the effort of establishing a military base in Bangladesh, which would be difficult for Dr. Yunus to refuse.

Meanwhile, under the Biden administration, although Sheikh Hasina, her son Sajeeb Wazed Joy and her family members and inner circle, accused of widespread corruption and mismanagement, should have fallen under US sanctions or other punitive measures, there has never been any such actions. In my opinion, the Biden administration does not want to completely cut-off its relations with Sheikh Hasina.

On the other hand, if the Republican Party’s candidate Donald Trump wins, and there is a sharp prediction of such consequences, a very different approach will emerge. Trump is likely to view Bangladesh’s interim government, particularly Dr. Yunus, with the same suspicion and hostility that Biden's administration held toward Myanmar’s former leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.

Sheikh Hasina and her supporters, who have accumulated vast wealth over years of massive financial misdeeds and corruption, would likely spend millions of dollars in lobbying efforts to secure favorable outcomes in Washington and London in particular. They may also spend significantly towards Western media, as it is well-known, almost all of those media are readily available for extending favor in exchange for cash.

Given the precedent of how lobbying has worked in the past, it is not far-fetched to imagine Hasina utilizing her resources to sway opinions on the US Capitol and influence US policy in favor of her continued political relevance. Lobbyists, whose influence can be bought for a hefty price, would undoubtedly jump at the opportunity to represent Hasina’s interests.

Despite the political maneuvering aimed at sidelining Sheikh Hasina, the peculiar nature of lobbying in the United States and the United Kingdom presents her with a potential pathway to return to power. In both countries, lobbying is a legal and highly lucrative business, where money can be used to influence governmental decisions. Hasina, with her extensive financial resources and Indian connections, can easily mount a campaign from abroad to reassert herself in Bangladesh’s political landscape.

The problem with this approach is that it opens Bangladesh to the dangers of foreign influence, particularly from powerful countries like the United States and India, both of which are keenly interested in the country’s political landscape. Hasina’s ability to utilize lobbyists to her advantage could set a dangerous precedent, wherein a foreign-funded political comeback may further destabilize Bangladesh’s already fragile democracy.

Still, Hasina's potential return cannot be ruled out, especially considering that powerful lobbyists are often willing to push any agenda for the right price. With Sheikh Hasina’s Indian lobbyists, billions of ill-gotten financial capacities, it is feasible for her to reinstate her party's influence, even if she remains physically removed from the political stage in Dhaka.

If Donald Trump wins the 2024 election, the scenario in Bangladesh could change dramatically. Unlike the Democratic Party, which has a strong connection with Dr Yunus, would face a setback like Aung San Suu Kyi. Trump would offer two options to Dhaka: reinstate Hasina in full capacity or allow the military to take over. In this case, the Pentagon may use its “Option-2” card. The Republican Party would prefer any alternative option other than Yunus because Trump personally would be tremendously vindictive towards Democrats and its allies.

A military takeover, which is not unheard of in Bangladesh’s history, could serve both US and Indian interests by ensuring a stable government that maintains close ties with Washington and New Delhi. It might be seen as a win-win situation for regional stability and US geopolitical interests, particularly if India continues to exert its influence. Such actions would eject China from its existing influence in Bangladesh. On the other hand, if Vladimir Putin shall respect Trump’s proposal for ending the crisis in Ukraine, Moscow shall also become a beneficiary in Dhaka alongside Washington and Delhi.

The November 5 US election holds profound significance for Bangladesh, as the country stands at a critical juncture with Sheikh Hasina's political future hanging in the balance. Most importantly, until now, it seems, Yunus is more dependent on his allies in the US and believes it only can help him in remaining in power without much interruption from major political forces in the country. He also is gradually becoming isolated from the people due to his over-dependence on a hand-picked number of student protestors. Unfortunately, Yunus’ key allies in Bangladesh – those student protestors are also becoming controversial very promptly as there are signals and allegations of their growing involvement in corruption, nepotism and illegal activities.

However, with Dr. Yunus’s strong influence over the Democratic Party and India’s strategic maneuvering in the region, Bangladesh’s future is being shaped not only in Dhaka but also in Washington and New Delhi. Whether Hasina returns to power, remains exiled, or is replaced by a military regime, depends largely on how the next US administration perceives Bangladesh’s strategic importance. A Trump victory could lead to a starkly different outcome than a Democratic win, signaling either a renewed military presence or Hasina’s political revival through foreign lobbying. Ultimately, Bangladesh’s political fate is deeply intertwined with the results of the US election, making it crucial for the country’s future trajectory.

The writer is a, political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh