World Desk

Nato summits typically aim to present a united front, and next week's gathering in The Hague will be no different—though behind the scenes, the spotlight is firmly on one man: Donald Trump.

Newly appointed Secretary General Mark Rutte has carefully orchestrated the two-day event to ensure there are no confrontations with the alliance’s most influential member, the United States.

A key focus will be a renewed pledge from European members to boost defence spending, aligning with President Trump’s longstanding demand—a message he has delivered consistently since his first term, when he publicly chastised allies for falling short and claimed they owed the US “massive amounts of money.”

Though Trump is only one of 32 leaders attending, his presence has shaped the entire agenda. The main deliberations have been condensed to just three hours, and the final summit declaration trimmed to five paragraphs—reportedly due to Trump’s preferences.

The Netherlands is hosting what will be the most expensive Nato summit to date, with Dutch authorities deploying an unprecedented security operation costing €183.4 million.

Trump’s scepticism of multilateral organisations, including Nato, remains unchanged. His America First policy continues to clash with many European leaders on key issues such as trade, Russia, and the conflict in the Middle East.

Rutte, known for his good rapport with Trump, has worked behind the scenes to offer the US president a policy win. The summit’s streamlined format, some say, is partly designed to suit Trump’s aversion to lengthy meetings. But the real benefit, analysts argue, is that it limits opportunities for divisions to become visible.

“Trump likes to be the star of the show,” says Ed Arnold of the defence think tank Rusi, who expects the former president to take credit for pushing European allies to act.

While several US presidents have urged Nato countries to contribute more to defence, Trump has arguably been more effective than most. Kurt Volker, a former US ambassador to Nato, acknowledges that not all European governments appreciated Trump’s confrontational approach—especially his demand that allies raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. Nonetheless, some have conceded that the pressure had a necessary impact. “We needed to do this, even if it’s unfortunate that it took such a kick in the pants,” Volker says.

A few countries, particularly those close to Russia like Poland, Estonia and Lithuania, are now aiming for that 5% mark. But for others, even the previously agreed 2% remains out of reach. To reconcile these gaps, Rutte has proposed a compromise: increasing core defence spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% earmarked for defence-related expenditures.

However, critics warn the broad definition of “defence-related” spending—potentially including infrastructure like bridges and roads—opens the door to “creative accounting.” Arnold notes that the flexibility could dilute the seriousness of the target.

Even if the new spending goals are adopted, many nations may not have the political will or resources to meet them by 2032 or 2035. Spain’s prime minister has already pushed back, calling the targets unrealistic and counterproductive. In the UK, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has not committed to a timeline, though the British government’s Nato-centric defence stance means he will likely support the framework.

The pressure for higher defence spending isn't just about appeasing the US—it aligns with Nato’s classified war plans, which outline responses to a potential Russian attack. Rutte has warned that Moscow could strike a Nato member within five years. In a recent speech, he detailed the alliance’s urgent needs: a 400% increase in air and missile defences, thousands more tanks and vehicles, and millions of artillery shells.

Many member states, including the UK, fall short of these capability commitments. Sweden is doubling its army, and Germany plans to increase its military personnel by 60,000. US Army Europe head General Christopher Donahue recently stressed the need to reinforce Poland and Lithuania near Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave, admitting Nato’s current defences are insufficient.

Despite the focus on Russia, the summit is expected to sidestep direct debate on the Ukraine war—reflecting deep transatlantic differences. “Under Trump, the US does not see Ukrainian security as essential to European security but our European allies do,” says Volker.

Trump has previously undermined Nato unity by engaging with Vladimir Putin and delaying military aid to Ukraine. According to Arnold, potentially divisive issues have been stripped from the agenda, including a much-anticipated review of Nato’s Russia strategy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend the summit dinner but has not been invited to participate in the main North Atlantic Council sessions.

As Rutte prepares to chair his first summit as secretary general, he hopes for a smooth event. But with Trump’s views diverging from much of the alliance—especially on Russia—the outcome remains uncertain.

Source: BBC