H. M. Nazmul Alam

The northeastern state of Manipur has once again descended into violence, with the government imposing curfews and suspending internet services in an effort to restore order. At the heart of this ongoing conflict lies a complex interplay of ethnic tensions, economic disparities, and governance failures. The warring communities — primarily the Hindu Meitei and the Christian Kuki — have been involved in violence for over a year, and the Indian government’s attempts at restoring peace have been largely ineffective. Let’s critically examine the root causes of the unrest, the actions taken by the government, and the broader implications for governance and social stability in India.

A History of Ethnic Tensions

Manipur, with its population of around 3.7 million, is home to a variety of ethnic groups. The two main factions involved in the current unrest, the Meitei and the Kukis, have been at odds for decades. The Meitei, predominantly Hindu, constitute the majority of the state’s population and are concentrated in the Imphal Valley, while the Kukis, who are mostly Christian, inhabit the surrounding hill areas. Historically, the hill tribes, including the Kukis, have been granted special economic benefits and quotas in education and government jobs due to their marginalized status. The Meiteis, despite being the majority, have long felt economically and politically sidelined, as these benefits do not extend to them.

The conflict flared up in 2023 when a court order directed the state to extend the Kukis’ special privileges to the Meiteis. This decision triggered waves of protests and violence, with both sides feeling aggrieved. The Kukis feared that granting such benefits to the Meiteis would erode their already limited resources and opportunities. Meanwhile, the Meiteis argued that their exclusion from these benefits was unjust and exacerbated the region’s economic inequalities.

The Role of Illegal Immigration and Drug Trafficking

Adding to the complexity of the conflict are allegations that illegal immigrants from neighboring Myanmar, foreign elements, and drug cartels have played a role in fueling the unrest. Congress MP A Bimol Akoijam has called for a thorough investigation into these claims, urging Union Home Minister Amit Shah to take decisive action. According to Akoijam, these external forces have contributed to the destabilization of Manipur, exacerbating the ethnic tensions between the Meiteis and Kukis.

Manipur’s proximity to Myanmar has made it a key transit point for illicit drug trafficking. The state shares a porous border with Myanmar, through which large quantities of narcotics flow, making it a hotspot for drug cartels. The presence of these illegal elements has added another layer of complexity to an already volatile situation. Some have even speculated that the recent surge in violence, including drone and rocket attacks, may be linked to these cartels seeking to maintain control over their illicit activities in the region.

The Government’s Response: Curfews, Internet Blackouts, and Security Forces

In response to the escalating violence, the Manipur government has imposed a five-day suspension of internet services and curfews in three districts — a move aimed at curbing the spread of misinformation and preventing further unrest. The government has justified these measures by arguing that social media platforms like WhatsApp, Facebook, and X (formerly Twitter) could be used by anti-social elements to incite violence. However, such actions have drawn criticism from civil society and human rights groups, who argue that cutting off communication only exacerbates the problem by stifling legitimate protest and reducing transparency.

Meanwhile, the central government has deployed two battalions of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), amounting to 2,000 personnel, to restore order. Despite the presence of security forces, clashes have continued, with mobs looting weapons from police camps and targeting villages. In the past week alone, fresh violence erupted in the Jiribam district, resulting in the deaths of six people, while drone and rocket attacks have become increasingly common.

The use of drones by armed groups represents a new and dangerous escalation in the conflict. In response, the Manipur police have deployed anti-drone systems and are in the process of acquiring additional weapons to counter these threats. While the use of such technology by insurgent groups is alarming, it also points to the growing sophistication of armed factions in the region.

A Failure of Governance

The continued violence in Manipur highlights a broader failure of governance, both at the state and national levels. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which governs both the state of Manipur and the central government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been criticized for its inability to resolve the conflict. Despite numerous peace talks between the Meitei and Kuki communities, and promises of government intervention, the violence persists.

Student-led protests have added another layer of complexity to the crisis. On Monday, hundreds of Meitei students protested in the state capital of Imphal, demanding that security forces take action against the Kuki insurgents whom they blame for the recent attacks. The protests soon turned violent, with students clashing with police and throwing stones. Security forces responded with tear gas and blank rounds, but the unrest continued to spread.

The students’ frustration with the government’s failure to resolve the conflict is palpable. Many feel that the central government has not done enough to address the root causes of the violence, including economic disparities, ethnic tensions, and the influence of illegal elements. The demand for the removal of the state’s top police official and security adviser is a reflection of this growing disillusionment with the authorities’ handling of the crisis.

The Broader Implications for India

The unrest in Manipur has significant implications for India’s broader political and social landscape. As one of the country’s northeastern states, Manipur has long been marginalized in national discourse, with its issues often overshadowed by the political and economic concerns of more prominent regions. However, the violence in Manipur is a stark reminder that regional conflicts can have national repercussions.

For the BJP, the ongoing conflict represents a challenge to its governance model, which has often emphasized strong central control and economic development. The inability to restore order in Manipur not only undermines the BJP’s claims of effective governance but also risks alienating voters in other northeastern states, where ethnic tensions and economic disparities are similarly prevalent.

The conflict also raises questions about India’s approach to managing diversity. With its multi-ethnic, multi-religious population, India has long prided itself on its democratic pluralism. However, the Manipur unrest exposes the limits of this model, particularly in regions where economic inequalities and ethnic divisions run deep. The violence between the Meiteis and Kukis is not merely a local issue; it reflects broader national challenges related to how India manages its diversity and distributes resources among its various communities.

Final Thoughts

The unrest in Manipur, with its curfews, internet shutdowns, mass killings, and block raids, bears striking parallels to the July Revolution in Bangladesh, where mass protests and violent crackdowns ultimately led to the dethroning of the Awami League government. The imposition of curfews and internet blackouts in both contexts is emblematic of how governments in crisis respond to dissent by restricting civil liberties under the guise of maintaining order. These actions, however, often intensify tensions, as seen in the case of Manipur, where students, much like their counterparts during the July Revolution, have become the vanguard of resistance. The use of force to silence protests, whether through block raids in Manipur or mass killings in Bangladesh, reflects a governance failure that pushes people further into disillusionment. Both regions, plagued by ethnic, political, and economic grievances, reveal a stark failure of leadership to engage in meaningful dialogue and reform. The fall of the Awami League serves as a cautionary tale for governments like those in Manipur and at the center, underscoring that suppression without addressing root causes will only lead to deeper unrest and potential regime change.

The writer is a, Lecturer, Department of English and Modern Languages, International University of Business, Agriculture and Technology