The current volatile situation in Myanmar's Rakhine State has cast a dark shadow over the Rohingya repatriation process, pushing South Asia’s most severe humanitarian crisis into deep uncertainty. This uncertainty and the overall situation are driving a significant portion of the Rohingya population toward criminal activities.
According to the Rohingya community, over 90% of their ancestral homeland in Rakhine (Arakan) is currently beyond the control of Myanmar's military junta. This has led to multiple complications and fears surrounding repatriation. The Rohingyas are demanding the establishment of a UN-supervised safe zone in Rakhine to ensure their secure return.
Currently, more than 1.4 million Rohingya are sheltered in Ukhiya and Teknaf of Cox’s Bazar and on Bhasan Char in Noakhali district. The majority of them fled from Rakhine following mass killings and atrocities carried out by the Myanmar military on August 25, 2017. At that time, Bangladesh provided them refuge on humanitarian grounds—an act that has since evolved into a major national crisis.
From the beginning, the Bangladeshi government has pursued international diplomatic efforts to ensure the safe return of the Rohingya to their homeland. Though agreements were signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar, the latter has failed to repatriate a single Rohingya, using various tactics to delay the process—leaving Bangladesh to shoulder an ever-increasing burden.
Recently, Myanmar has identified 180,000 Rohingyas from a list of 800,000 provided by Bangladesh as "eligible for repatriation." While this is seen as a diplomatic breakthrough for Bangladesh, it has not brought optimism among Rohingyas. The key concern remains: Myanmar’s government no longer controls the region, which is now largely in the hands of the Arakan Army (AA), a rebel group.
This has led to mixed reactions within the Rohingya community. They acknowledge the step of identifying 180,000 returnees as positive, but they claim that even the Arakan Army has been involved in persecuting Rohingyas. Therefore, they insist that only a UN-supervised safe zone can ensure their secure return.
Mohammad Hossain, a resident of Camp-1 in Ukhiya’s Lambashia, said that in addition to recognition as an ethnic group, the Rohingyas must be guaranteed a safe and dignified repatriation. But the current situation in Arakan (Rakhine State) makes this impossible.
“There are intense clashes between the junta and the Arakan Army. Virtually the entire Arakan region is under AA control. Our relatives are being tortured by them. Rohingyas are in grave danger,” he said.
He expressed doubt over how any repatriation would be implemented under such conditions.
Abdul Aziz, a resident of Camp 2-East in Kutupalong, said, “Rakhine is our ancestral land. The Myanmar junta no longer exists there; the Arakan Army controls it entirely, especially Rohingya-dominated areas like Buthidaung and Rathedaung. If Bangladesh attempts to proceed with repatriation through discussions only with the junta, it will not lead to a sustainable solution.”
He added, “In 2023, when a group of Rohingyas was taken to observe conditions in Rakhine at the military’s invitation, they returned to Teknaf Jetty and said there were no safety guarantees. They refused to go back. That’s why I say this is just another tactic to mislead Bangladesh.”
With the junta no longer in control of over 90% of Arakan, questions remain: how will it repatriate 180,000 Rohingyas? Where will they be settled? Will the Arakan Army simply stand by and watch?
Mohammad Zubair, chairman of the Arakan Rohingya Society for Peace and Human Rights, said, “Who will take responsibility for us? Min Aung Hlaing is under an international arrest warrant and no longer controls Arakan. If we return, it would be to Arakan. But where will the junta chief settle us? That’s still unclear.”
He added, “We’ve heard of many repatriation efforts before. But without guarantees of safe and dignified return, the Rohingya have refused. We want a permanent solution. If the junta had declared a dedicated safe zone for the Rohingya under UN supervision, we would have been genuinely pleased.”
He further stated, “If a UN-supervised safe zone is created in Arakan, not a single Rohingya will remain in Bangladesh.”
Security analyst Major (Retd.) Emdadul Islam said, “Given the current situation, Rohingya repatriation is not feasible. Rakhine is extremely unstable with no guarantee of safety.” He questioned how, when, and under whose clearance any repatriation could take place, stating that everything remains uncertain.
“Even the UN Secretary-General has said that repatriation can only be considered once stability and security are restored in Rakhine. Currently, there are no homes for the Rohingyas, and their former settlements are now under the control of the Arakan Army,” he added.
Rohingya expert Asif Munier explained that between 2018 and 2020, Bangladesh submitted the names of 800,000 Rohingyas to Myanmar across six phases. From this list, Myanmar identified 180,000 as eligible for return. However, many Rohingyas who fled weren’t even listed. The total refugee population is now 1.4 million. Previous attempts to implement the bilateral agreement failed, and now, Rakhine is no longer under Myanmar government control. So where would they be sent?
He emphasized that the situation on the Myanmar border is war-like. “Will the Rohingyas return to a warzone? Or is the junta just using the repatriation narrative as a diplomatic distraction, as before?” he asked. He added that the junta has also announced an election date, which—alongside the repatriation offer—may be an attempt to divert international attention.
Origins of the Crisis and Conflict History:
The Rohingyas are a Muslim minority in Myanmar’s Rakhine State with roots going back to the 12th century. However, since British colonial rule, Myanmar’s majority Buddhist population has viewed them as outsiders. The 1982 citizenship law officially excluded the Rohingya from Myanmar’s recognized ethnic groups.
While persecution has occurred at various times, the military crackdown that began on the night of August 25, 2017, was unprecedented—marked by mass killings, rape, arson, and gross human rights violations.
The UN has described the crackdown as “ethnic cleansing” and “genocide.” Fleeing for their lives, hundreds of thousands of Rohingyas sought refuge in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s Humanitarian Role and Challenges:
On humanitarian grounds, Bangladesh opened its borders to the Rohingya. However, the massive influx of refugees placed immense pressure on the environment, economy, law enforcement, and social infrastructure in Cox’s Bazar and Bandarban districts.
According to the Bangladeshi government, approximately 2,500 hectares of forest are destroyed annually due to the Rohingya camps. Rivers and canals are being filled, and land and water pollution are on the rise.
Locals face increasing competition in employment, healthcare, and social services, fueling tensions between host communities and camp residents.business
In the world’s largest refugee settlement, issues related to food, shelter, healthcare, education, and security are constant.
Crimes such as drug trafficking, arms dealing, human trafficking, and gang violence are escalating. Armed Rohingya groups like ARSA, RSO, and Islamic Mahaj are battling for control within the camps.
According to police data, over the past five years, more than 300 murders, 500 abductions, and hundreds of arms recoveries have been reported in the refugee camps.
Mohammad Hossain (38), a camp resident, said, “In Myanmar, we had homes and businesses. The military burned our houses down. We fled to this camp to survive. But life here is very hard. There are no jobs or schools. Our children's future is bleak.”
Rohingya woman Ayesha Khatun (25) added, “We want to return home safely. But Myanmar is still dangerous. The military continues to commit rape and murder. We're afraid we’ll be killed if we return.”
Local resident Md. Ismail (45) said, “Rohingyas have increased crime in our area. There was no drug problem here before. Now, yaba (meth) is seized every day. Even local youths are getting involved. Our businesses and jobs are suffering.”
Regional and International Geopolitics:
China, India, and Russia play pivotal roles in resolving the Rohingya crisis. Myanmar, backed by China, has ignored international pressure.
Due to Chinese and Russian vetoes in the UN Security Council, strong resolutions have been blocked.
Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed, an international relations expert, said that neither ASEAN nor SAARC has played an effective role. “Bangladesh cannot resolve this crisis alone. Without international diplomatic pressure, a solution is unlikely,” he stated.
Experts stress that both short- and long-term measures are necessary.
The Rohingya refugee crisis has become a prolonged humanitarian and national security threat for Bangladesh. Despite praise for its humanitarian efforts, a permanent resolution is essential—otherwise, the region could plunge into deeper instability.
Many young Rohingyas in the camps have recently developed thoughts of “jihad” and “war” to reclaim their homeland. Some even dream of establishing an independent region, according to a BBC report.
Speaking to the BBC in the Cox’s Bazar refugee camps, a Rohingya youth said, “We will not stay here. We’ll return to Myanmar. If needed, we will fight and make it independent.”
